Rainfall Variability and Land Cover Change in the Zaaba Watershed and Implications for Sustainable Food Security

Climate variability and land cover change can affect water availability and agricultural production. This article examined rainfall variability during 1991–2020 and land cover change during 2001–2020 in the Zaaba watershed, Vihiga County, Kenya, and considered their implications for food security. Rainfall trends were assessed using the Mann–Kendall test and a reported trend estimator, while land cover was analysed using Landsat imagery. Socioeconomic information was collected from a sample of 150 respondents using questionnaires, focus group discussions and key informant interviews. The reported trend estimates were negative for the March–May long rains (−0.030) and positive for the October–December short rains (0.136) and annual rainfall (0.503). However, inconsistencies between the reported p-values and Z statistics prevent firm conclusions about statistical significance. The reported agricultural category declined from 50.05% in 2001 to 32.80% in 2020, while built-up land increased from 5.06% to 17.68%. Reported riparian cover declined from 5.18% to 0.87%. Eighty-three per cent of respondents identified mixed farming as the main economic activity. Response denominators and the interpretation of other reported perceptions require clarification. These findings indicate potential pressures on agricultural livelihoods. The article recommends protecting riparian areas and improving local capacity for sustainable land and water management. The reported associations do not establish that land cover change caused changes in rainfall or quantify effects on crop yields or household food security.