Trade Implications of Kenya–South Africa Economic Relations under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)

This mini review examines Kenya–South Africa relations after their June 2026 Strategic Partnership agreement. It asks a focused question: does deeper institutionalisation produce a stable economic partnership, or does it simply move conflict into new instruments, such as tariffs? The review applies complex interdependence theory (Keohane and Nye, 1977) alongside the regime concept of reciprocity (Keohane, 1986). It treats institutional density and reciprocity enforcement as two independent variables, with partnership stability as the dependent variable. The analysis draws on a qualitative, desk-based review of government statements, trade ministry announcements, and Africa-focused news reporting published between May and August 2026. It traces the signing of six Memoranda of Understanding, the first African Continental Free Trade Area consignments between Durban and Mombasa, and a rapid tariff dispute over Kenyan timber duties and South African tea concessions. The review argues that interdependence has deepened cooperation while also generating recurrent, short-cycle friction. This supports a core proposition of complex interdependence theory: deep ties redistribute conflict rather than remove it. The review closes with implications for African regional trade governance and for firms operating across the two markets.