Dynamics under Two Regimes: The Diplomatic Relations between Kenya and Somalia

This paper examines the evolution of Kenya–Somalia relations between 2014 and 2025, a period spanning two Kenyan presidencies (Uhuru Kenyatta, 2013–2022, and William Ruto, 2022–present) and two terms of the Somali presidency held by Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, interrupted by that of Mohamed Abdullahi “Farmaajo” Mohamed (2017–2022). Drawing on twelve peer-reviewed academic sources and four policy and news reports, the paper analyses the foreign policy behaviour of both states across five thematic domains: the transition from the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) to the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) and, subsequently, the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM); the 2021 International Court of Justice maritime boundary judgment; the Jubaland dispute and the 2019–2021 diplomatic rupture; Somalia’s 2024 accession to the East African Community; and the entangled question of refugees and the Kenyan-Somali diaspora. The paper’s central claim is that the bilateral relationship has moved from a security-dominated, adversarial-legalistic register under Kenyatta toward a more transactional, institutionally embedded, but still fundamentally asymmetric register under Ruto and Mohamud’s second term a shift driven less by resolved mistrust than by structural pressures.