Urban-Rural Migration under the devolved governance system in Kenya: Subsequent implications for income and occupation
Keywords:
Urban-rural migration, Kenya devolution policy, income and occupational change, Probit modelAbstract
The study investigates the impact of urban-rural migration on income and occupation. The paper aims to estimate the probabilities and significance of income and occupational change across different socio-economic characteristics and demographic profiles upon return to the rural areas from Nairobi city, particularly after the enactment of 2013 Kenya devolution policy. The paper draws upon exploratory research using data comprising 69 interviews with the return migrants after they had established a stay in rural areas, two years subsequently after migrating from Nairobi city. By applying the empirical methods of probit regression model, the study finds that significant probability for income change varies across different socio-economic attributes and demographic profiles. Occupational change and associated probabilities are significantly determined by low education level, female gender, the old age, huge rural land size, and low migrant’s job-related expertise level. For both income and occupational change, rural land size more than 2.5 acres is a significant incentive for urban-rural migration; given the likelihood that return migrant shifts to agriculture and in a long run establishes a robust source of income. This, after assigning other dummy variables, and setting the baseline at two years.
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